Threat Modelling
Cyber Threat Modelling
4th June 2023
The new age ... more cyber and less blocky, rigid, slow, and boring.
We are going to base ourselves around the FIRE. FIRE brings us together; it brings us warmth, light, and comfort. Let's use it.
You can still STRIDE into your kitchen and DREAD having PASTA again, but this is way more fun.
These are humorous but also serve a serious purpose; one model does not fit all ... pick what is important to you or to your situation ... heck, pick two, three, all of them, and make new ones!
Whether it is Catch, Breath, Throw, Camp, Dumpster, or This Girl, be sure to keep your threat world warm and lit with fire!
CATCH FIRE
"CATCH FIRE" denotes an active, urgent, and comprehensive approach to cyber threat intelligence. The framework covers everything from data collection to continuous evolution, ensuring a robust response to cyber threats.
Speed, Urgency, Action!
Collection and Processing
Collection: Gather data from various sources like OSINT, proprietary information, commercial cybersecurity companies, forums, social media, and threat intelligence feeds.
Processing: Convert the raw data into a format that is easier to analyse, like structured data. Data normalisation and data enrichment would take place in this stage.
Analysis
Threat Identification: Analyse the processed data to spot potential threats. Different types of threats should be considered, such as but not limited to malware, phishing attacks, ransomware, DDoS, insider threats, and advanced persistent threats (APT).
Threat Validation: Validate the identified threats by cross-referencing with multiple sources.
Threat Classification: Classify the validated threats based on parameters including type, source, target, and severity.
Threat Contextualisation: Understand the business context of the threat. Analyse its potential impact on the business's operations and reputation.
Threat Intelligence Production
Compile a detailed report about each significant threat, including its description, potential impact on the business, and recommended mitigation strategies.
Cyber Threat Hunting
Employ proactive strategies to look for advanced threats that could evade existing security solutions.
This process should use a hypothesis-driven approach (where the threat hunters form a hypothesis about potential threats and then look for evidence of such threats) and a machine learning-based approach (where machine learning algorithms analyse large data sets to spot anomalies that could indicate a threat).
Handling (Dissemination, Feedback, Improvement)
Dissemination: Share the threat intelligence report with the relevant parties, such as the IT team, the incident response team, the top management, or even third-party partners, depending on the nature of the threat.
Feedback: Collect feedback about the threat intelligence report's usefulness and accuracy and the response strategy's effectiveness.
Improvement: Use the feedback to improve the entire process. Implement changes where necessary and prepare for a more efficient threat intelligence process in the future.
Feedback and Improvement
Continuously collect feedback on the accuracy and usefulness of the threat intelligence, and make improvements accordingly.
Improve threat detection and response capabilities based on real-world experiences and the changing threat landscape.
Integration
Integrate threat intelligence into the security infrastructure, improving preventive controls, refining alert systems, and enhancing response and recovery efforts.
Improve detection capabilities by incorporating indicators of compromise (IoCs) and tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) into security systems.
Response Enhancement (part of Integration)
Enhance the organisation's incident response capabilities using threat intelligence to respond more effectively to incidents.
Evolution (Automation and Machine Learning)
Use machine learning and artificial intelligence to automate and enhance various aspects of the process, such as threat identification, classification, and response.
Continuously evolve threat intelligence strategies and technologies to stay ahead of the ever-changing cyber threat landscape.
BREATH of FIRE
"BREATH of FIRE" denotes a continuous, active approach to cyber threat intelligence, and it indicates that the organisation is prepared to take swift and decisive action against threats.
Baseline Security Posture Assessment: This is the initial step where the organisation's current cybersecurity strengths and weaknesses are assessed to provide a foundational understanding upon which other measures can be built.
Risk Analysis and Assessment: Here, potential risks and threats to the organisation are identified and analysed in terms of their likelihood of occurrence and potential impact on the business.
Environmental Scanning: Refers to monitoring external sources for information about current and emerging threats. This can include open-source intelligence (OSINT) as well as commercial and confidential sources.
Analysis of Threat Intelligence: This involves making sense of the collected data, identifying potential threats, validating and classifying these threats, and understanding them in the context of the business.
Threat Intelligence Production: A detailed report is created about the identified threats. This report includes a description of the threat, its potential impact on the business, and recommended mitigation strategies.
Hunting (Cyber Threat Hunting): This proactive approach involves continuously searching for advanced threats that might have evaded existing security solutions.
Feedback and Improvement: After the threat intelligence has been disseminated, feedback is collected to improve the entire process, creating a continuous improvement cycle.
Integration: Threat intelligence is integrated into the security infrastructure, improving preventive controls, refining alert systems, and enhancing response efforts.
Response Planning: This is about having an effective response plan in case of an attack. This includes having both technical measures and crisis management processes prepared.
Evolution (Automation and Machine Learning): This part of the model involves using machine learning and artificial intelligence to automate and enhance various aspects of the process, such as threat identification, classification, and even response.
THROW FIRE
"THROW FIRE" can be seen as a proactive, dynamic approach to managing cyber threats. It denotes a commitment to be on the front foot, to stay ahead of potential threats and to swiftly address them when they arise.
Threat Identification: This initial phase is about identifying potential threats. It involves analysing various data sources to identify possible malicious activity.
Hunting (Cyber Threat Hunting): Here, the focus is on proactively looking for threats that might have yet to be detected by automated security systems. It's about staying one step ahead of the attackers.
Risk Assessment: This is the process of analysing and understanding the risks identified threats pose to the organisation. This includes understanding both the likelihood and the potential impact of each threat.
Observation (Environmental Scanning): This involves constantly monitoring the cyber landscape for new and emerging threats and understanding the context in which they operate.
Warning (Threat Intelligence Production): After identifying, hunting, assessing risk, and observing, the next step is to produce actionable threat intelligence reports. This intelligence is used to warn the relevant parties in the organisation about the threats.
Feedback and Improvement: After the threat intelligence has been disseminated, feedback should be collected about its effectiveness. This feedback can then be used to improve the entire process.
Integration: Threat intelligence is integrated into the organisation's security infrastructure. This can enhance preventative controls, refine alert systems, and improve response efforts.
Response Planning: This is about having an effective plan to respond to cyber threats. This could include technical measures and crisis management processes.
Evolution (Automation and Machine Learning): The framework's last step focuses on using automation and machine learning to continually evolve the cyber threat intelligence process, making it more efficient and effective over time.
CAMP FIRE
The "CAMP FIRE" framework, similar to a real campfire, symbolises warmth and safety, providing light in the dark. This framework seeks to shed light on potential threats, keeping the organisation's network safe from cyber threats.
Collection: This is the first step, where we gather data from various sources, such as OSINT, proprietary information, commercial cybersecurity feeds, and more.
Analysis: Once we have collected the data, it must be analysed. We're looking to identify potential threats, validate these threats, classify them, and understand their context.
Monitoring (Environmental Scanning): We continuously watch the cyber landscape for new and emerging threats in this step. We also understand the context in which these threats operate.
Production (Threat Intelligence Production): We create actionable threat intelligence reports after analysis. These reports contain detailed information about the identified threats, their potential impact, and recommended mitigation strategies.
Feedback and Improvement: We collect feedback on its effectiveness after disseminating the threat intelligence. We then use this feedback to improve the entire process, creating a continuous improvement cycle.
Integration: Threat intelligence is integrated into the organisation's security infrastructure. This improves preventive controls, refines alert systems, and enhances response efforts.
Response Planning: This step involves preparing an effective response strategy for the identified threats. This includes both technical measures and crisis management processes.
Evolution (Automation and Machine Learning): In the final step, we use machine learning and artificial intelligence to automate various process aspects, including threat identification and response. This evolution ensures that our cyber threat intelligence process remains effective and efficient.
DUMPSTER FIRE
"DUMPSTER FIRE" might seem humorous, but it highlights a serious commitment to rigorous and continuous efforts to identify, understand, and address cyber threats.
Detection (Threat Identification): This involves spotting potential cyber threats. It can be serious business, but let's face it, most threats start as mysterious pings, much like dumpster diving.
Understanding (Risk Assessment): Here, we're taking a closer look at the threats we've detected. Because understanding threats is a bit like figuring out why someone threw away a perfectly good pizza in the dumpster.
Monitoring (Environmental Scanning): Keeping an eye on the ever-changing threat landscape is vital, much like a raccoon constantly checking a dumpster for new goodies.
Preparation (Response Planning): Just like you'd need gloves and a mask for a dumpster dive, you need to be prepared with the right tools and plans to respond to cyber threats.
Strategy (Cyber Threat Hunting): Proactively hunting threats is an art, much like finding treasure in what others consider trash.
Transmission (Threat Intelligence Production): Here, the actionable threat intelligence is compiled and ready to be handed off, like announcing the impressive, barely scratched CD collection you just found in the dumpster.
Education (Dissemination): Knowledge is power. Threat intelligence must be shared with relevant parties, kind of like showing off your dumpster finds to your friends.
Reflection (Feedback and Improvement): This is where you consider feedback to make your dumpster dives even more successful next time. It's all about continuous improvement.
Futureproofing (Integration): Threat intelligence is integrated into your security infrastructure. It's the equivalent of equipping your dumpster with a ladder for easier access next time.
Innovation (Evolution): Using automation and machine learning to improve and innovate your threat intelligence process continuously. Imagine if dumpsters could sort their contents for you!
Resilience: Building resilience in your systems to withstand and recover from threats. The equivalent of dumpster-proofing your clothes and gear.
Endurance: Being persistent in pursuing cyber threat intelligence, just like enduring the smell and grime during a good dumpster dive!
THIS GIRL IS ON FIRE
"THIS GIRL IS ON FIRE" communicates a dynamic, powerful, and active approach to cyber threat intelligence, encompassing various activities and strategies to ensure the organisation is well-protected against cyber threats.
Threat Identification: The starting point of any good security practice is identifying possible cyber threats within the organisation's cyber infrastructure.
Hunting (Cyber Threat Hunting): Proactively searching for advanced threats that might evade existing security solutions using human and machine intelligence.
Information Gathering (Environmental Scanning): Constantly monitoring the digital environment for new and emerging threats using open and closed-source intelligence.
Situational Analysis (Risk Assessment): Understanding the risks the identified threats pose to the organisation. Includes both the likelihood and potential impact of the threat.
Generation (Threat Intelligence Production): Creating actionable threat intelligence reports. These reports include a detailed description of the threat, its potential impact on the business, and recommended mitigation strategies.
Implementation (Integration): The stage at which the threat intelligence is integrated into the organisation's security systems to improve preventive controls and response efforts.
Response Planning: An effective response plan for each identified threat, including technical measures and crisis management processes.
Learning (Feedback and Improvement): Considering feedback from the organisation after threat intelligence has been disseminated and using it to improve future threat intelligence practices.
Innovation (Evolution): Utilising machine learning and artificial intelligence to improve threat identification, analysis, response, and overall security posture.
Security Enhancement (Response Enhancement): Implementing the recommendations from threat intelligence to improve the organisation's security infrastructure and response mechanisms.
Ongoing Monitoring: Continually observe the organisation's digital infrastructure for any signs of threats, even after they've been addressed.
Network Defence: Ensuring the organisation's network is robust and secure against identified threats, often due to implementing recommendations from threat intelligence.
Future Proofing: Updating and upgrading the organisation's security infrastructure to protect against future threats.
Informed Decision Making: Using the insights from threat intelligence to make informed decisions about the organisation's security policies and strategies.
Risk Management: Incorporating cyber threat intelligence into the organisation's overall risk management practices.
Empowerment: Empowering all organisation members with the knowledge and tools they need to contribute to their cyber security.
"Keep your network glowing strong; identify threats and where they belong. THROW your FIRE; fight fire with FIRE. With a BREATH of FIRE, your cyber defence will never tire. CATCH the FIRE before it catches you. Even if the threats seem dire, like a DUMPSTER or a CAMP on FIRE, stay resilient, keep climbing higher, because this GIRL's cyber threat intelligence is on FIRE!"